The SEC comes into January as the 2nd best conference in the country according to KenPom. There are 10 teams that have a realistic shot at making the tournament, and the next two months will have a great impact one way or another for these squads. Alabama (6th), Tennessee (7th), and Auburn (10th) all enter conference play as a top ten team in KenPom’s rankings.

Tennessee led the way for the conference during the non-conference slate, winning at Wisconsin and taking down Illinois at home. Kentucky, Arkansas, and Ole Miss each picked up a big win during the early months of the season, beating UNC, Duke, and Memphis respectively. South Carolina’s 12-1 start and Ole Miss’s 13-0 start have brought palpable buzz to these two programs, projected in the bottom half of the SEC in the preseason. These two add excitement to the middle of the conference, but the top of the conference may even be a better race. Will it be Tennessee’s experience, Alabama’s shooting, Auburn’s depth, or Kentucky’s young talent that tops the conference at the end of the season?

#1 Tennessee (15-3)

Rick Barnes struck gold in the transfer portal this offseason, bringing in an SEC Player of the Year candidate in Dalton Knecht (15.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg). The Volunteers have elite guard play with Zakai Ziegler (8.2 ppg, 4.5 apg), Santiago Vescovi (8.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg), and Jordan Gainey (9.1 ppg, 2.2 rpg). A tough stretch in late November saw the Vols lose three straight games to Purdue, Kansas, and UNC, and the Vols have been swept under the radar over the last month. They picked up a home win over Illinois in mid-December and ride a six-game winning streak into the SEC opener vs Ole Miss on Saturday.

#2 Alabama (14-4)

Alabama suffered through one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country, going 0-5 in games versus Ohio State, Clemson, Purdue, Creighton, and Alabama. The metrics still love this team though, and the Crimson Tide boast KenPom’s #1 rated offense. While it would’ve been beneficial from a resume standpoint to come away with some wins in those games, I believe that this schedule still played a role in building up Alabama and that they will come out hot in SEC play. Alabama finished the non-conference slate with a 101-56 thrashing of Liberty, with six players scoring in double figures.

#3 Auburn (12-6)

Auburn might have the deepest roster in the country, with ten players averaging over fifteen minutes per game. All ten of these guys can flat-out play too, each bringing a different dynamic on either side of the floor. Johni Broome (15.8 ppg, 8.7 rpg) leads the Tigers in points, rebounds, and blocks and is a force at both ends. Freshman Aden Holloway (10.5 ppg, 3.9 apg) is an exciting player to watch and can shoot it from anywhere on the court. I think Auburn is getting overlooked by a lot of people across the country and I won’t be surprised when they’re the last SEC team standing in March.

#4 Kentucky (12-6)

Speaking of exciting players, Kentucky has a handful of their own. Freshmen guards Rob Dillingham (14.3 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 4.5apg) and Reed Sheppard (12.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 4.3 apg, 2.8 spg) fill up the stat sheets on both ends, and if you need a testament to their electrifying style of play, rewatch the highlights from the Champions Classic game against Kansas. When Kentucky is clicking, its beautiful basketball, but they’ve had a couple games where they didn’t look locked in (St. Joseph’s, UNCW). That’s the biggest concern I have with this Kentucky team, not showing up at 100%, and I could see them dropping one or two games against the bottom half of the conference. If this team gets hot in March though, the sky’s the limit – because I don’t think there’s any basketball player in the country that wouldn’t be up for a game in the NCAA Tournament.

#5 Texas A&M (11-7)

Wade Taylor IV (17.6 ppg, 4.5 apg) was the SEC Preseason Player of the Year, and if he can match his non-conference showing, he’s got a good chance at winning the real thing. After finishing 2nd in the SEC last year, I don’t think the Aggies will quite be able to match that mark this season. A&M is still a very talented team, but the top of the SEC is a lot tougher this year. This team will go as far as Wade Taylor IV can take them, and don’t be shocked after he puts up 30 points in a win over one of the top four teams in the conference.

#6 Florida (11-7)

Florida hasn’t been talked about much at all this season, and I think it’s a team that’s flying under the radar. The Gators have four great guards surrounding Seton Hall transfer Tyrese Samuel (14.3 ppg, 8.8 rpg) and their extremely fast pace of play makes them a great watch for a neutral fan. Freshman Alex Condon (8.2 ppg, 6.8 rpg) has had a fantastic start to his freshman campaign, and I’ve placed him as my breakout candidate for the SEC season. Todd Golden has a good squad this year, and one that can make some noise in the NCAA Tournament.

#7 Mississippi State (10-8)

Mississippi State is the toughest team to get a read on in the SEC, as Tolu Smith (16.0 ppg, 9.0 rpg) has played just one game this season, last Sunday against Bethune-Cookman. As one of the best players in the conference, his return gives Mississippi State a chance to compete with anyone. The Bulldogs have an embarrassing loss to Southern, but with Smith back this is a completely different team and I’m not sure we can read too much into that game anymore.

#8 Arkansas (9-9)

After three straight Sweet 16’s and beyond from Eric Musselman, I think this season is where the streak comes to an end. Arkansas put together a great performance against Duke in late November, but the team hasn’t played anything like that outside of that game. The Razorbacks open up the SEC slate hosting Auburn, so this could become a cold take by the end of the weekend. Keyon Menifield Jr. (15.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 3.0 apg) has only played the three most recent games, and his offensive impact could be the boost this team needs. I think Muss can get this team back on track, but a stacked SEC will be hard to stay afloat in.

#9 Ole Miss (8-10)

Chris Beard has taken over Ole Miss and is yet to lose as their head coach heading into SEC play and their conference opener at Tennessee. Matthew Murrell (17.0 ppg, 4.1 rpg) and Allen Flanigan (16.7 ppg, 7.5 rpg) lead the team in scoring, and timely baskets from Jaylen Murray (14.7 ppg) has kept this squad undefeated. The Runnin’ Rebels didn’t test their talent too much through the first two months of the season but did pick up a home win over Memphis. Ultimately, I think the level of play in the SEC will surprise this team and a rough start could occur. Chris Beard on the sideline gives them an advantage against many of the teams in the SEC, and he has already over-achieved getting this team to 13-0.

#10 Missouri (6-12)

The Missouri Tigers look like they’re headed for a down year in Dennis Gates’ second season, as they got off to a rough start including a loss to Jackson State. With just one win in their last four games, Missouri will be looking to get on the right track at the start of SEC play. Sean East II (17.1 ppg) is the leading scorer for Missouri and has played extremely well since that Jackson State game. The Tigers will need more impact from the rest of the roster if they want to have a fighting chance in the SEC.

#11 The Rest of the SEC

To round out the SEC, I’ve got South Carolina (6-12), Georgia (5-13), LSU (4-14), Vanderbilt (3-15). South Carolina has had a surprising start to the season, and if they can build off that they could challenge in the SEC, but in reality I think all four of these teams will be consistently out-matched throughout conference play.

My Predictions for the All-Conference Selections and Award Winners

First Team: Wade Taylor IV (Texas A&M), Johni Broome (Auburn), Dalton Knecht (Tennessee), Mark Sears (Alabama), Tolu Smith (Mississippi State)

Second Team: Reed Sheppard (Kentucky), Allen Flanigan (Ole Miss), Tyrese Samuel (Florida), Tramon Mark (Arkansas), Meechie Johnson (South Carolina)

Player of the Year: Mark Sears (Alabama)

Defensive Player of the Year: Johni Broome (Auburn)

Newcomer of the Year: Dalton Knecht (Tennessee)

Freshman of the Year: Reed Sheppard (Kentucky)

Coach of the Year: Rick Barnes (Tennessee)

Breakout Player to Watch For: Alex Condon (Florida)