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Florida’s elite offense meets Houston’s lockdown defense in Monday’s championship game

The storylines coming into the national championship game are eerily similar to the storylines heading into the national semifinal between Duke and Houston, as a top two offense in Florida goes against the nation’s best defense in Houston.

The main difference is obviously where the star power from the high-flying offenses come from, as Duke star freshman forward Cooper Flagg was the most indispensable guy for the Blue Devils, while Florida leans heavily on its senior guard Walter Clayton Jr.

Clayton has been unbelievable in the NCAA Tournament thus far, averaging 24.6 ppg and 3.8 made threes per game in the tournament, with plenty of damage done late in games. The Iona transfer has almost single handedly won two games in the tournament for Florida, completely taking over late against both UConn and Texas Tech, the latter of which saw Florida overcome a nine-point deficit in the game’s final minutes.

While all eyes will be on Clayton on Monday night, the guy I’ll be looking for to have a big game for Florida will be the FAU transfer Alijah Martin. Martin comes into the championship game averaging 14.6 ppg and is best known for his two-way ability, but as one of three players suiting up tonight who have played in a Final Four before this season, I’m leaning on Martin’s experience on the biggest stage to provide a boost for Florida. In 2023’s national semifinal against an elite defense in San Diego State, Martin, then at FAU, scored 26 points and went 7-of-13 from the field. His impact on both ends will be crucial, but I think the offensive impact of Alijah Martin in this game could be much larger than expected.

For Houston, the key will be winning the rebound battle inside, as both teams rank inside the top ten in offensive rebounding percentage. The Cougars grabbed 18 offensive rebounds and outrebounded Duke 42-31 in the national semifinal, an extreme stat especially when you consider Duke’s length and size. If the Cougars’ bigs can control the interior, it’ll come down to the guards of Houston making shots.

After LJ Cryer’s 26 points against Duke, he’ll be keyed in on by the Florida defense and likely Alijah Martin. If Houston hopes to walk away victorious, I think it’ll take an above-average scoring night from Emanuel Sharp or Milos Uzan, if not both. Uzan has struggled in the last two games, averaging just 6.5 ppg and 2.5 apg, and I’m not sure Houston can win a third straight game with a lackluster performance from its point guard.

I lean Houston to get the job done in its home state, although after an emotional comeback on Saturday night, I’m scared of the Cougars coming out flat. With an elite offense going up against an elite defense, I’ll give the advantage to the defense, in a large part due to the fact that it’s coached by Kelvin Sampson. My official prediction will be that the third time is the charm, both for Houston in the national championship game and Sampson in the Final Four, and the Cougars take down Florida 68-64 in a tightly contested game.

No matter what happens, I think we’re a due for another instant classic in this year’s Final Four, as these two elite teams meet with a title on the line. Whether its Florida or Houston that gets the job done, keep an eye on the performances of Alijah Martin and Milos Uzan to be lead factors in the direction this game tilts.

Other Things to Note:

• The National Championship tips off on Monday night at 8:50 ET on CBS as Florida takes on Houston in San Antonio