The Pac 12’s final basketball season is shaping up to be an intriguing one, with the conference being home to one of the best teams in the country, Arizona, and some of the biggest names in the country, including Bronny James, Isaiah Collier, and Caleb Love. Throughout this article I’ll give my predictions for how the league standings shake out along with my picks for the all-conference teams and awards.
Leading into conference play, the Pac 12 has had an up and down showing throughout the non-conference schedule. Arizona picked up wins over Wisconsin, Duke, Michigan State, and Alabama, but fell in their biggest matchup in Indianapolis vs Purdue. Washington stole a game away from Gonzaga in Seattle and Utah used their own home court advantage to get a win over then-undefeated BYU. Outside of these three teams, the conference failed to capitalize on their non-conference schedule. Arizona looks to be a tier above the competition, but Colorado should pose at least a small threat to Tommy Lloyd’s squad. The middle of the conference is packed closely together and could go in any order. Can Mick Cronin and Andy Enfield turn their seasons around? Will Oregon finally get healthy and stay healthy in Pac 12 play this season? Will Mike Hopkins make good use of yet another talented Washington roster? There are lots of questions that will be answered in the coming months, but one thing is for certain, and that is that the Oregon State Beavers will be sitting at the bottom of the standings when it’s all said and done.
#1 Arizona (17-3)
Arizona has started the season off even better than most expected and sit 9-1 with a game against FAU in Las Vegas to finish off their non-conference slate this Saturday. The Wildcats will likely be favored in every game they play in the Pac 12, but trips to Colorado, Oregon, and Washington State could be where they drop a game or two. Caleb Love leads the team in scoring and is shooting the ball more efficiently than ever before. With four other guys averaging double figures, a different one can hurt the opponent each night. Kylan Boswell has taken a big jump to start his sophomore season, and the way he can control the game, lock down the opposing point guard, and hit big shots when needed has played a large part in Arizona’s early success. In reality, it would be a huge shock for any team not named Arizona to walk away with the Pac 12 title in its final rendition.
#2 Colorado (14-6)
One of the best duos in the country lead Colorado this season, with KJ Simpson (19.6 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 4.4 apg) and Tristan da Silva (15.8 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 3.0 apg). Freshman Cody Williams was off to a hot start for the Buffaloes but hasn’t played since December 3rd and his return is unknown for the current moment. Colorado struggled away from home in November and December, sitting at 2-2 on the season in neutral site/true road games. Being able to pick up signature wins in the coming months will ride heavily on road games, as Arizona will likely be their only chance at a home Q1 win. Colorado’s biggest stretch of the season will come from late January to early February when they play consecutive road games at Washington, Washington State, and Utah.
#3 Washington (13-7)
I’ve bought into this Washington roster and I’m hoping this is the year Mike Hopkins finally gets something done at UW. The Huskies have a core made up almost entirely of seniors, with many of them ending up at Washington through the transfer portal. Sahvir Wheeler and Paul Mulcahy both average over five assists and have four-plus years of experience at the power conference level. Keion Brooks Jr. is shooting 50% from the field and averaging 20.1 points. Moses Wood and Koren Johnson chip in on both sides of the ball from the wing position. Then of course there’s the trio of big guys inside, with Franck Kepnang, Braxton Meah, and Wilhelm Breidenbach protecting the interior and crashing the glass. Washington has enough firepower and experience on the roster this season to make noise in the Pac 12 and on the national stage.
#4 Utah (12-8)
Since Utah’s loss to St. John’s in the Charleston Classic, the Utes have won six straight and taken down Saint Mary’s and BYU. Branden Carlson is at the top of every team’s scouting report for Utah, with the seven-footer averaging 16.8 ppg while shooting 48.4% from the field and 35.9% from behind the arc. Rollie Worster runs the point for Utah, dishing out 6.2 assists per game. The key for Utah to be their biggest games will be to get guard Gabe Madsen hot from three-point range. Madsen is shooting 45.8% from three this season and already has six games this season with 3+ three pointers made. Craig Smith’s third season at Utah should be the year the Utes make the Big Dance.
#5 USC (12-8)
Lots of eyes have been on USC this season, with the Trojans roster containing both the #1 prospect in the nation, Isaiah Collier, and the son of Lebron James, Bronny James. Collier’s 16.1 ppg is second in the team to Boogie Ellis, who leads the team with 19.5 ppg. The story with USC so far this season has been the disappointing results though, with home losses to UC Irvine and Long Beach State, and a blowout loss on national television in a road game against Auburn. The Trojans sit at 6-5 currently, but a light opening start to the Pac 12 season could give them some momentum to finish the year.
#6 Washington State (11-9)
After battling through non-Hodgkin lymphoma last winter, Washington State freshman guard Myles Rice has had a tremendous start in his return to basketball. Rice currently leads the Cougars in scoring at 15.6 ppg. Isaac Jones, a transfer from Idaho, has leveled his game up with his move to the Pac 12, averaging 15.1 ppg. These two have helped Washington State get off to an 8-2 start, although the Cougars lost at neutral venues in their two toughest contests, vs Mississippi State and Santa Clara. Head coach Kyle Smith has quietly had Washington State above .500 in every season he’s been in Pullman, and with Rice and Jones leading the team, the Cougars have a chance to be on the bubble in March.
#7 Oregon (11-9)
Dana Altman has a limited rotation for yet another season, with Jesse Zarzuela recently announced as out for the year, Keeshawn Barthelemy banged up recently, and big men N’Faly Dante and Nate Bittle out since mid-November. Dante could be back in the coming weeks, and his return would be huge on both ends of the floor. Dante’s only game this year came in an 82-71 win over Georgia on the opening day of the season, and he scored 16 points and grabbed 21 rebounds. It’s hard to judge just how this team will do in Pac 12 play with all of the injury question marks, but as long as the trio of Jackson Shelstad (12.7 ppg), Jermaine Couisnard (11.7 ppg), and Kario Oquendo (10.3 ppg) can stay healthy, the Ducks will have a fighting chance and should be able to stay afloat in the Pac 12.
#8 UCLA (10-10)
I wasn’t high on UCLA coming into the season, but they’ve somehow lowered my perception of them through their first ten games. Losses to Marquette, Gonzaga, Villanova, and Ohio State were acceptable, but the Bruins snapped the nation’s longest home-winning streak with their loss to Cal State-Northridge on Tuesday and now go into Friday’s contest against Maryland with their best win of the season a 1-point victory over UC Riverside. Freshman Sebastian Mack (15.0 ppg) has been a bright spot for UCLA, but Mick Cronin will have lots of growing pains to deal with in his young squad in what looks to be a rebuilding year after losing Tyger Campbell and Jaime Jaquez in the offseason.
#9 Arizona State (8-12)
Arizona State started the season 6-2 with wins over San Francisco and SMU but have since lost three in a row including a road loss to San Diego, and two blowout losses on neutral courts to TCU and Northwestern. Bobby Hurley will have his hands full trying to turn the losing streak around, as the Sun Devils are projected by KenPom to lose their first eight games of conference play. I don’t think the Sun Devils will start 0-8, but it’s something to be scared of with the way this team is coming into the new year looking like.
#10 Stanford (7-13)
Jerod Haase is halfway through his 8th season at Stanford and there doesn’t seem to be any chance that the Cardinal reach their first NCAA tournament under Haase for yet another season. The Cardinal fell in their four biggest games of the non-conference schedule so far, including a 22-pt blowout loss to Northern Iowa. Stanford gets one more chance at a quality win before beginning Pac 12 play hosting Arizona State with a road trip to San Diego State. I don’t have high expectations for this Stanford team, but Maxime Raynaud, a junior forward from France has started to break out this season and could be a name to watch for this season.
#11 Cal (4-16)
Cal has an intriguing assortment of players this season but haven’t quite gotten them all on the floor together yet. Their top three scorers are all transfers, with Jaylon Tyson (19.4 ppg) and Fardaws Aimaq (16.9 ppg) coming from Texas Tech, and Jalen Cone (16.3 ppg) out of Northern Arizona. They’ve suffered non-conference losses to Pacific, Montana State, and UTEP already, and even with the on-paper talent on this squad, I don’t think they can put it all together in Pac 12 play.
#12 Oregon State (1-19)
Unlike the Cal Golden Bears, Oregon State hasn’t actually lost a non-conference game to a bad opponent yet, but their resume has been littered with close wins against Troy, Appalachian State, Cal Poly, Utah Valley, and UTSA. They couldn’t keep pace with Nebraska, Baylor, and Pitt in their three losses, and it’s hard to find a win on the Pac 12 schedule for the Beavers, even with Jordan Pope (16.1 ppg) leading the team.
My Predictions for the All-Conference Selections and Award Winners
First Team: KJ Simpson (Colorado), Caleb Love (Arizona), Boogie Ellis (USC), Keion Brooks (Washington), Branden Carlson (Utah)
Second Team: Kylan Boswell (Arizona), Sahvir Wheeler (Washington), Keshad Johnson (Arizona), Myles Rice (Washington State), Tristan da Silva (Colorado)
Player of the Year: KJ Simpson (Colorado)
Defensive Player of the Year: Keshad Johnson (Arizona)
Newcomer of the Year: Caleb Love (Arizona)
Freshman of the Year: Myles Rice (Washington State)
Coach of the Year: Tommy Lloyd (Arizona)
Breakout Player to Watch For: Jaden Bradley (Arizona)
Arizona should run away with the conference, and likely run away with a lot of the awards, but KJ Simpson is the clear best player in the conference to me, and if he can keep his production from the non-conference season, he should have no trouble winning the conference’s player of the year race. Myles Rice has one of the best comeback stories in the country, and I think he edges out guys like Isaiah Collier and Cody Williams for the FOTY award, propelling Washington State to a successful season.