While not a high major conference, the Missouri Valley has long been one of the premier mid-major conferences in college basketball, even with some of the top teams coming and going. The conference had a down year last year, ranking 16th out of 32 conferences, the lowest in the Kenpom era. However, this year the MVC seems to have bounced back. In the final Kenpom update last season, the conference had six teams ranked at 223rd or lower. This season, the second lowest team is currently ranked 209th. Indiana State has risen to the top, with a Top 25 NET ranking. Drake, led by returning player of the year Tucker DeVries isn’t too far behind. And perhaps the best story in the conference is Southern Illinois point guard Xavier Johnson, leading the NCAA in scoring after being a role player his first four years of college basketball. Another great story in the Valley lies in Evansville, where the Purple Aces have already blown expectations out of the water and risen 172 spots in Kenpom since the start of the season.
Most teams in the conference have already played two conference games in late November and early December, but the full conference season begins on December 30th, when UIC travels to Southern Illinois. Below, I’ll dive into my conference predictions now that I have a feel of the teams.
1. Indiana State
The Indiana State Sycamores have been one of the most overachieving teams in college basketball, with the sixth highest increase in efficiency margin from the Kenpom preseason rankings. Head coach Josh Schertz has proven to be one of the best mid major coaches in the country, as he’s been seeing nothing but progress over his three years. On the court, the Sycamores have a variety of weapons, one being skilled 6’10” big man Robbie Avila, a contender for Missouri Valley player of the year. In the backcourt, the transfers Schertz brought in are instantly producing. Southern Indiana transfer Isaiah Swope is averaging 19.0 points per game, and South Florida transfer Ryan Connell is averaging 15.5 points per game. The Sycamores have won 10 straight, and in their lone loss to Alabama, Avila did not play. The next game up on the schedule should be very intriguing, when Schertz and company travel to Michigan State.
2. Drake
Drake was my preseason pick to win the conference, and despite no longer sitting in first place for me, the Bulldogs haven’t done anything to lessen my view of them. Along with Indiana State, Drake has 11 wins, and recently beat a then-undefeated Nevada team by 19. The Darian DeVries coached team is solid on both sides of the ball, with their offense and defense ranking in the top 80. Tucker DeVries is the returning MVC Player of the Year and has picked up where he left off, averaging 19 points per game, and seeing increases in most other statistical categories. Also averaging double digits are Cal State Northridge transfer Atin Wright, freshman Kevin Overton and sixth year senior big man Darnell Brodie.
3. Southern Illinois
Contrary to the teams above, Southern Illinois isn’t a team I thought I’d have this high right now. The Salukis’ have risen to this point due to one player: Xavier Johnson. Over the offseason, Marcus Domask and Lance Jones, both All-Conference players entered the transfer portal, committing to Illinois and Purdue, respectively. That left the Salukis with some major questions offensively, as Johnson’s 7.0 points in 2022-23 was the highest returning average on the team. This year, he’s more than answered every question, as the leading scorer in college basketball. Johnson is averaging nearly 25 points on elite efficiency and is also among the top passers in the country, averaging 5.6 assists per game. Southern Illinois has a variety of role players doing their respective share of the work, and Bryan Mullins’ squad recently got two-time transfer Jarrett Hensley eligible.
4. Missouri State
Missouri State hasn’t gotten as much media coverage as some of the other teams in the Valley, but they’ve been solid this year. Opposed to some of the other teams in the conference, the Bears get most of their work done on defense. Dana Ford has assembled a team full of former high major players and athletes, and to no surprise that has made them one of the best teams in the country in field goal defense. Former Oklahoma transfer Alston Mason has been leading the offense, averaging over 18 points per game. Matthew Lee, a former St. Peter’s transfer has done a good job leading the offense, but hasn’t been consistently healthy. Donovan Clay and Chance Moore are both scoring in double figures, and sophomore big man NJ Benson has stepped up into the starting position and been effective on both ends.
5. Northern Iowa
Northern Iowa has played one of the tougher schedules in the country to date, so their 6-7 record isn’t indicative of how much of a threat they are in the Valley. Despite a down year last year, they return 90% of their minutes. Last year’s team was very young, and it’s evident that another year of growth and development has helped them. But the biggest win for the Panthers was getting a healthy Nate Heise. Heise was a solid starter for Ben Jacobson’s squad two years ago, but only played two games last year due to injury. This year, he’s leading the team in scoring with over 15 points per game and has been one of the best players in the conference to date. Also scoring in double figures for the Panthers are Bowen Born and Tytan Anderson.
6. Belmont
Belmont lost Ben Sheppard to the NBA Draft over the offseason, but have still shown flashes of being one of the more competitive teams in the conference. The main reason for the success of the Bruins is their sophomore class, which as it stands now looks like one of the best in the nation. Forward Cade Tyson was the Missouri Valley Rookie of the Year last year, and his production has carried over, averaging over 17 points per game this season on very efficient numbers from the field. Point guard Jacobi Gillespie is also making a big sophomore jump, seeing a huge increase in efficiency from last year, especially from three point range. The final member of Belmont’s “big three” sophomores is Vanderbilt transfer Malik Dia. When he’s in the game, he’s a score-first, score-second player, averaging 16.5 points in just over 21 minutes per game after seeing limited playing time in the SEC last year.
7. Bradley
Bradley got off to one of the hottest starts in the country this season, and for a little while looked like they may be the Missouri Valley team to beat. However, their winning stretch was followed by a five game losing streak. Bradley’s frontcourt duo of Malevy Leons and Darius Hannah has been very impressive this year on both sides of the ball. Both players have above a 3% block and steal rate, and are averaging double digits scoring. Also averaging double digits are guards Duke Deen and Connor Hickman. Hickman has been out recently with an ankle injury that does not seem to be long-term. Although Bradley has struggled recently, there’s no taking away that they beat some very good teams in the early nonconference season, and will be a real threat in Missouri Valley play.
8. Evansville
Evansville was one of the worst teams in college basketball last year, and by all indications weren’t going to drastically improve this season. However, head coach David Ragland has flipped the script, already doubling last year’s win total with 10 wins on the season. The Purple Aces haven’t played the toughest schedule, but have taken care of business when needed, and already have a conference win over Northern Iowa. Their best player has been Ben Humrichous, a NAIA transfer averaging a very efficient 16.3 points per game this season while scoring from all levels. Freshman Chuck Bailey III, a very highly rated recruit for Evansville standards, and big man Yacine Toumi are also in double digits. While it’s uncertain how they’ll end up in conference play, they’ve elevated themselves from the basement to the big pack in the middle of the conference, and just by doing that are one of the best stories in the sport.
9. UIC
UIC is another team that has outpaced their preseason Kenpom expectations, although their inconsistency is keeping them at the bottom of the pack of teams in the middle of the conference. They’ve gotten lots of help from Colorado State transfer Isaiah Rivera, a real steal for coach Luke Yaklich in the portal. Rivera is averaging an efficient 14.8 points per game. Versatile forward Toby Okani is also in double digits, and may be the best defensive player in the conference. The Flames are a defensive oriented team, ranking 70th in the country in defensive efficiency. They’re currently the second best team in the country in guarding the 3-point line. It’s easy to see that the key to improving lies on the offensive end, as they’ve lost some questionable games to Incarnate Word and Green Bay.
10. Illinois State
Illinois State is a tier behind UIC in my rankings, but they’ve shown at times to be a very dangerous team, already starting 2-0 in Missouri Valley play. Similar to UIC, this Redbirds team is mainly defensive oriented, and currently has the 110th ranked defense in the country compared to their 288th ranked offense. On the offensive end, their leading scorer is Darius Burford, averaging over 13 points per game. Dalton Banks, an in-conference transfer from Southern Illinois has been a plus as well, averaging double digits and leading the team in assists. Another player to remember the name on the Redbirds is freshman guard Johnny Kizinger. Kizinger doesn’t see a ton of minutes, but he’s been a plus on both ends of the ball, and if he sticks around should be one of the better players in the conference in the upcoming years.
11. Murray State
Contrary to the last two teams, Murray State’s strength lies on the offensive end. The Racers haven’t gotten out to the best start record wise, but have shown some flashes, including a conference win over Bradley and a narrow loss at Mississippi State earlier in the season. Although I have them 11th, they aren’t going to be a pushover in conference play, and them being so low speaks more to the strength of the conference as a whole. Steve Prohm’s squad currently has four players in double figures, with guards Rob Perry, JaCobi Wood and Brian Moore and forward Nick Ellington.
12. Valparaiso
While the top 11 teams in this conference will be competitive, it’s a pretty safe bet to put Valparaiso in last place. They’re over 100 spots back from the second to last Missouri Valley team in Kenpom, and have had a fairly rough start to the season. However, Valpo fans should be fine with this season. It’s obviously far from ideal, but it’s Roger Powell’s first year, and they’re getting lots of minutes out of their young guys to prepare them for future seasons. One player that has impressed is junior college transfer Isaiah Stafford, currently averaging north of 16 points per game.
My Predictions for the All-Conference Selections and Award Winners
First Team: Xavier Johnson (Southern Illinois), Tucker DeVries (Drake), Malevy Leons (Bradley), Ben Humrichous (Evansville), Robbie Avila (Indiana State)
Second Team: Nate Heise (Northern Iowa), Donovan Clay (Missouri State), Cade Tyson (Belmont), Toby Okani (UIC), Isaiah Swope (Indiana State)
Player of the Year: Xavier Johnson (Southern Illinois)
Defensive Player of the Year: Toby Okani (UIC)
Newcomer of the Year: Ben Humrichous (Evansville)
Freshman of the Year: Kevin Overton (Drake)
Coach of the Year: Josh Schertz (Indiana State)
Breakout Player to Watch For: NJ Benson (Missouri State)
Indiana State and Drake seem to have separated themselves as the top two teams in the conference, and will battle it out for the top seed in Arch Madness. After those two teams, it could be anyone. Except for Valparaiso, teams 3-11 all have a shot at contending towards the top of the league, which will make the Missouri Valley one of the most fun mid-major conferences, and conferences in general to watch this season. The player of the year race will also be interesting. Xavier Johnson seems hard to beat if he keeps producing, but Tucker DeVries and Robbie Avila are good enough to win player of the year most years, so if Johnson sees a slide in production those two are right there.