One of the best weeks of the college basketball season is upon us, as every conference has already finished, is currently in the midst of, or will soon be starting their conference tournament. On Instagram (@collegehoopsoutlet), I’ve given my full bracket predictions for all 32 conference tournaments, and in this article, I’ll go in depth on five low seeded teams I believe will make a run in their conference tournament.
BYU – Big 12 – #5 Seed
The BYU Cougars have had a fantastic first season in the Big 12, finishing in 5th place at 10-8 and winning games over Baylor, Iowa State, and Kansas. With the 9th ranked offense in the country (KenPom), and the 2nd fastest pace in the Big 12 (KenPom), I believe BYU can get hot this weekend and give some of the slower teams like Texas Tech, Iowa State, and Houston problems.
BYU opened up Big 12 Tournament play with an 87-73 win over UCF on Wednesday afternoon and will play Texas Tech in the quarterfinal round on Thursday at 12:30 p.m. EST on ESPN2. These two teams faced each other just once in the regular season, with Texas Tech winning 85-78 in Lubbock. After a 2-4 start to Big 12 play, the Cougars have gone 9-4 in their last 13 games. I believe the Cougars will stay hot and get revenge over Texas Tech to set up a semifinal matchup with the number one team in the country, Houston.
The Houston Cougars handed BYU their second home loss of the season on January 23rd, but with Houston’s record at 28-3, there’s not much to complain about there. That matchup went down to the wire, with the game tied at 68-68 before Houston scored the final seven points of the game. If BYU can shoot better than 11-38 in the rematch, it will have a very good chance to hand Houston just its fourth loss of the season.
Winning in the semifinal would set up a rubber match vs Iowa State in the championship game according to my predicted bracket, as the two teams each won on their home floor in the regular season. BYU has looked the better team for most of the 80 minutes between these two teams, winning the first game 87-72, and leading by nine at Hilton Coliseum with less than ten minutes to play before falling 68-63. With this being said, I think the Cougars enjoy the matchup vs the Cyclones and get the job done the third time around. A key will be getting a string of hot shooting nights, which they’ve shown they can do throughout this season, thus giving them a Big 12 Tournament Championship in their first season in the conference.
Colorado State – Mountain West – #7 Seed
The Mountain West Conference has been one of the most intriguing conferences in the country this season, and Colorado State is one of six teams who could find themselves in the NCAA Tournament. The Rams have had an up-and-down year, starting the season 13-1 with wins over Creighton, Colorado, and New Mexico, before going through a 7-8 stretch in the middle of conference play and finishing as the 7th seed in the MWC. What they do have that many other teams in the country don’t have, is a point guard that can control the game like Isaiah Stevens. Stevens is a difference maker in every area on the court, and has tournament experience, currently in his fifth season and being a key piece of the 2022 NCAA Tournament team for CSU.
San Jose State was the opening round opponent for the Rams, who pulled away in the second half 72-62 to advance to Thursday’s quarterfinal round. Nevada awaits Colorado State, as the Wolf Pack have won their last seven games and swept the Rams in the season series. It’s tough to beat a good team three times, and with these two teams so evenly matched, I believe Colorado State gets the best of Nevada in the quarterfinals.
A win in the quarterfinals would set up a semifinal matchup against either New Mexico or Boise State, and I have the Broncos advancing to the semifinals. Colorado State faced Boise State twice in the regular season, with each team winning on their home court. The Broncos have been hot, finishing the season winning six of seven, and knocking off San Diego State on the road to finish the regular season. The Rams have the capability to grind out a game with the Broncos, as they showed in the matchup in Fort Collins. Both teams struggled from behind the arc, but the Rams were able to pound it inside and Collins finished with 11 assists in the game. A win vs Boise State would set up a championship game matchup with San Diego State in my bracket.
CSU and SDSU also split their season series, with each team winning on their home floor. The Rams led at Viejas Arena 44-28 in the second matchup before scoring just 11 points in an embarrassing second half performance. If the Rams can play any better than they did in those 20 minutes in a future game against the Aztecs, they should have no problem coming away with a win. Jaedon LeDee dominated that second matchup vs the Rams, but if they can shut down the rest of the Aztecs outside him, they can score enough to win. Colorado State was supposed to be one of the best teams in the Mountain West Conference each of the last two seasons, and I think this weekend puts everything together for the Rams and Isaiah Stevens leaves the conference in style as one of its best players of all time.
Auburn – SEC – #4 Seed
The SEC was very top-heavy this season, with five teams finishing with a conference record of 13-5 or better. Auburn was one of the five, being placed as the #4 seed in the SEC Tournament but come into the tournament as the SEC’s highest ranked team on KenPom (#4 in the country). The computers like this team, and even if they don’t have an abundance of quality wins, this weekend comes with great opportunity.
Auburn’s first game in the SEC Tournament will come on Friday in the quarterfinal round, playing either Arkansas or South Carolina. I think South Carolina gets the job done vs Arkansas and moves on for a rematch with Auburn. The Tigers dominated the regular season’s only matchup, a 101-61 showing at Neville Arena. Auburn has the advantage inside and should be able to blitz South Carolina with their 10-man rotation full of fresh legs.
A win in the quarterfinals would set up a semifinal matchup vs Tennessee in my predicted bracket, and the Tigers would be looking for revenge. These two teams met just once in the regular season, Tennessee picking up a 92-84 home win. Auburn led the game with less than 10 minutes to play, but Dalton Knecht proved to be too much, scoring 39 points on 12-21 shooting. Easier said than done, but if Auburn can hold Knecht to even just 25 points, the Tigers can advance to the SEC Championship game.
My predicted SEC Championship game pits Auburn against the Kentucky Wildcats, a team who beat them at Neville Arena 7-59 in the lone regular season matchup. Jaylin Williams went out injured in that matchup, and the Tigers had their worst offensive performance of the season. That wasn’t a typical Kentucky defensive performance, in fact it was likely the Wildcats’ best of the season. I believe these two teams play a championship game in close fashion, but ultimately Auburn’s experience reigns supreme and they claim the SEC Tournament title.
SMU – American – #6 Seed
SMU finished the regular season cold, limping to a 1-4 finish after a 10-3 start to conference play. The Mustangs have shown they’re capable of matching up against tough competition though, putting up 100 on Memphis in a home win, and playing both Wisconsin and Dayton close to the final minutes. If the Mustangs can get back to their mid-season form, there’s no reason they can’t make a run in the wide open AAC.
As the #6 seed in the conference tournament, SMU opens play on Thursday with a second-round matchup against Temple. SMU beat the Owls in the teams’ regular season matchup, and with recent allegations against the Temple basketball program of “throwing” a game against UAB, I don’t have any doubts in my mind the Mustangs can use this matchup as a tune-up game for Friday’s quarterfinals.
Charlotte finished third in the AAC and would match up against SMU in the quarterfinal round. SMU beat the 49ers in the conference opener as the teams’ only matchup. While Charlotte finished three places ahead of SMU in the regular season standings, the computers like SMU’s team far more. KenPom has SMU ranked 64th in the country, while the 49ers sit at 115th heading into Thursday’s games. I like the Mustangs to get the job done against the 49ers once again to set up a semifinal matchup vs Tulane.
The AAC has had plenty of chaos this year, and I believe this will continue in the conference tournament. My predicted semifinals include #8 seed East Carolina, #5 seed Memphis, #10 seed Tulane, and #6 seed SMU. The Green Wave of Tulane gave #2 seed FAU two tough tests in the regular season, falling by a combined margin of seven points. I think Tulane pulls the upset in the quarterfinals but meets their match against an SMU team who also beat them twice in the regular season.
An AAC championship game between Memphis and SMU would be one of the most exciting of the year, as these two teams played twice already in the regular season. One matchup saw SMU break the century mark in a 106-79 win, and the other saw Jahvon Quinerly hit a game-winning shot in a 62-59 game. SMU dominated the matchup at Moody Coliseum, and I believe they will handle business in the AAC championship, punching a ticket to the NCAA Tournament and stealing a bid from a bubble team somewhere across the country late on Saturday afternoon.
Oregon – Pac 12 – #4 Seed
Oregon is the lone team on this list I don’t have winning their conference tournament, but I have the Ducks pulling one of the biggest upsets of the bunch, beating Arizona in the Pac 12 semifinals. The Ducks come into Las Vegas on a rocky stretch, not having won or lost more than two consecutive games since early January. This plays into my thinking that Oregon can pull off a big win but won’t be able to match the performance the following round.
Oregon begins Pac 12 Tournament play with a quarterfinal matchup against UCLA on Thursday, playing a Bruins team who they split the season series with. The Bruins finished the regular season with a win over Arizona State and won in the opening round against Oregon State but had suffered a five-game losing streak in the stretch before. Mick Cronin’s team has very limited experience among its team, and I believe it shows when they match an Oregon team led by the ultra-experienced guard Jermaine Couisnard.
A win over UCLA sets up a semifinal matchup vs Arizona for the Ducks, a team they lost to twice this season. At McKale Memorial Center, in the teams’ second matchup, Oregon did whatever they pleased offensively, but couldn’t get enough stops as the Wildcats shot 14-25 from three in a 103-83 win. Couisnard scored a season-high 39 points in the loss, and if he can get some help in a third match between the two teams, the Ducks will have a chance. 71 of the Ducks’ 83 points in that matchup came between Couisnard, Jackson Shelstad, and N’Faly Dante. Any bench production in the Pac 12 semifinals could be enough to upset an Arizona team that has been prone to play down to its competition level throughout the year.
My hypothetical Pac 12 Tournament bracket has Oregon matching up with #3 seed Colorado, a team who also swept Oregon in the regular season. The teams’ third matchup would come on Championship Saturday, and possibly be a “win and you’re in” scenario. The Buffaloes would likely feel safer if they came into the game with wins over Utah and Washington State but claiming the Pac 12’s automatic bid would remove any doubt. KJ Simpson and Cody Williams dominated the first matchup, while Tristan da Silva and J’Vonne Hadley did most of the scoring in the second. I like Colorado to take out Oregon in the final, but we’ve seen a bid-stealing Oregon team before, when a junior Payton Pritchard carried the Ducks to a 2019 Pac 12 Tournament title, and 2024 may bring us the year of Jermaine Couisnard or Jackson Shelstad.