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Sunday’s bracket reveal has started the madness early this year

There were plenty of stunning moments throughout the bracket reveal, perhaps none more than the way the bubble turned out. By the end of the first region reveal, North Carolina heard its name called, while West Virginia and Indiana caught the short end of the stick.

The Tar Heels had the Mountaineers and Hoosiers beat when it comes to the metrics, but a 1-12 record in Quad 1 didn’t exactly entice me to put them in my projected bracket. West Virginia boasted a 6-10 Quad 1 record of its own, and while we can play the injury game with Tucker DeVries, the fact is four of those wins came without him, including a road win over Kansas and a home win over Iowa State.

Indiana had a 4-13 Quad 1 record but no losses outside the top quadrant, including an impressive win at Michigan State that delayed Tom Izzo becoming the winningest coach in Big Ten history. At some point, winning big games has to actually mean something, and I’m not sure the committee showed that it did this season. Nonetheless, the First Four in Dayton should be able to sell some tickets, with UNC, Texas, Xavier, and San Diego State coming to town early this week.

While UNC walked away Sunday night feeling relieved, its conference rival Louisville had to feel screwed over. The Cardinals’ average projected seed on Bracket Matrix was 5.78, but Louisville landed as an eight seed, matched up against the number one overall seed Auburn. The Cardinals were punished for a lack of top-end wins, going just 4-6 in Quad 1, which doesn’t match up with how North Carolina was rewarded.

Elsewhere on the eight seed line, Gonzaga was given a possible second round matchup with Houston. While the Zags didn’t have the wins until the last three weeks of the season, their predictive metrics have been top ten all season. The team that probably feels the most hard done here is Houston, having a would-be Final Four opponent as its second-round matchup.

The final eye-catching moment of the Selection Show for me was Memphis receiving a five seed, even with a predictive metric average in the mid-50’s. Memphis picked up two Quad 3 losses throughout the season, but it looks as if the Tigers were ultimately rewarded for their gauntlet non-conference schedule that saw them pick up wins over Michigan State, Clemson, Ole Miss, and UConn. While I respect the wins Memphis earned, it’s definitely intriguing to see a 12 seed (Colorado State) favored in a 5-12 first round matchup.

Overall, the biggest flaw I saw with the committee’s selection and seeding process throughout the reveal was the lack of consistency. Some teams were given the benefit of the doubt without the wins or from fighting through injuries, while others didn’t receive enough credit for the wins they earned, with or without their star players.

Other Things to Note:

• The 2025 NCAA Tournament tips off at 6:40 ET on Tuesday night with the First Four in Dayton, Ohio