While creating and updating my Way-Too-Early Top 25 over recent weeks, I came to realize I was much higher on Auburn than most. This realization gave me the motivation to write an article over why I think Auburn will be a top ten team this season and has real potential to reach the Final Four. So, without further ado, here are my four reasons to buy into Auburn basketball for 2024-25.
Reason #1 – Johni Broome is BACK
The biggest piece of the puzzle for Auburn will be back on the court next year for the Tigers, coming back for a third and final season at AU. After two dominant seasons at Morehead State, Broome made the jump up to the SEC and has been just as successful. Broome averaged 16.5 ppg, 8.5 rpg, and 2.2 bpg this past season while being named to the All-American Third Team, All-SEC First Team, All-SEC Defensive Team, and SEC Tournament MVP.
Broome has been one of the best defensive forwards in the country each of the last three seasons, and in 2024-25 he could very well be the best forward in the country, period. The way Broome affects the game on the defensive side of the ball is easy to see, and his steady improvement on the offensive end throughout the years makes me excited for what he could do in 2024-25. From his junior to senior season, Broome saw massive jumps in his KenPom offensive rating (108.1 to 118.4), effective field goal percentage (53.9% to 58.3%), free throw makes and attempts (70-125 to 112-182) and three-point makes and attempts (9-31 to 28-79), alongside slight increases in points, rebounds, and assists per game. If this improvement continues in his fifth year, let’s just say it will be hard for me to not have Broome on my preseason First Team All-American list.
Reason #2 – Upgrades in the Backcourt
Now you may look at the list of outgoing players for Auburn that includes Aden Holloway (7 ppg, 3 apg), KD Johnson (7 ppg, 2 rpg), and Tre Donaldson (7 ppg, 3 apg) and think the Tigers may take a step back in the backcourt. Bruce Pearl made sure that would not be the case however, going out and landing two experienced guards from the transfer portal, both significant upgrades over the Tigers’ trio from 2023-24.
The first transfer commitment of 2024 for Auburn came from Furman transfer JP Pegues. In my opinion, Pegues was one of the best guards available in the transfer portal this year and possibly the most underrated. Starting all 66 of Furman’s games the past two seasons, Pegues has done and seen a lot. The moment Pegues broke onto the scene came in his sophomore season, hitting the game-winning shot for the Paladins after that pass from Virginia’s Kihei Clark in the first round of the 2023 NCAA Tournament.
His junior season (2023-24) saw him take the reins of the Furman backcourt after Jalen Slawson and Mike Bothwell graduated. The team’s record suffered slightly, but Pegues broke out as a star in the SoCon, averaging 18.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg, and 4.8 apg. Pegues stayed efficient even with the increased role, shooting 42.0% from the field and 36.2% from three and also boasted a 26.2% assist rate. The experience, scoring ability, and playmaking ability of Pegues make him an attractive talent, and he is far and away better than any guard on the roster of Auburn last season. I can’t understate how big of a pickup I think Pegues is, and SEC fans and fans across the country will find out this winter.
Now that’s a lot of writing for one player, but I really think Pegues can make the difference from last season to this season for the Tigers. Miles Kelly became the second guard to transfer into Auburn when he committed this past Sunday, and while he may not be on the same level as Pegues, he provides them with another scoring weapon in the backcourt. Kelly averaged 13.9 ppg and 5.5 rpg this past season at Georgia Tech in his third year with the Yellow Jackets. He was pretty inefficient, shooting just 36.9% from the field and 32.1% from behind the arc, but that will happen when you’re trying to shoot your 14-18 team back into games a lot of the time. With a guard as good as Pegues in the backcourt with him now, there will be plenty of open looks for Kelly.
Both Pegues and Kelly provide scoring in the backcourt, something the Tigers desperately missed last season, with no guard averaging more than 10 points per game. With two experienced guards who can score, and one that can provide for others at a great rate, it’s hard to imagine Auburn losing in the first weekend once again. And let’s put this on the record before I forget: Be on the lookout for JP Pegues to make the All-SEC First Team in 2024-25.
Reason #3 – Bruce Pearl is on the Sidelines
While I may be slightly higher than others on the impact of Bruce Pearl, it doesn’t take a diehard college basketball fan to realize Pearl is one of the top 10-15 coaches in the game right now. Outside of the wacky 2020-21 season, Auburn has been a top 35 KenPom team every season since 2018. Pearl has had consistent success at Auburn, one that includes a run to the Final Four in 2019. I think there’s an upside chance that the 2025 Final Four is Pearl’s second at Auburn, as Pearl finally has a backcourt with talent to match (and possibly exceed) that of the 2019 team.
Pearl has churned out great seasons the past three years even without elite guard play, and now he can finally match that with the interior success and dominance of Johni Broome. The battles on the sidelines in the SEC will be legendary this season with names including John Calipari, Nate Oats, Rick Barnes, and Chris Beard, but I believe Pearl can keep up with any of them right now.
Reason #4 – The Metrics Have Their Back
The metrics loved the Auburn Tigers last year, and that’s usually a good indicator for postseason success. The postseason success didn’t come last season though, as the Tigers became the first #4 seed ranked inside the top ten of KenPom to lose in the first round. The way I see it, if the metrics back them up again, there’s no reason they can’t make a deep run in 2024-25.
Losing Jaylin Williams (12.4 ppg, 4.4 rpg) will be the biggest hole to fill in 2024-25, and something that could tank their numbers a bit, but former frontcourt mate Johni Broome is one of the highest rated players per KenPom. Broome finished 3rd in KenPom’s Player of the Year Standings, behind just Purdue’s Zach Edey and UConn’s Tristen Newton, who both featured in the 2024 national championship game.
As a final note on the metrics, Auburn returns their best player and four other rotational players from a team that finished 2024 in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive rating on KenPom, a feat only matched in 2024 by the national champion UConn Huskies.
Final Notes
To me, it’s as simple as this for the Auburn hype: The Tigers return a player who will be a Preseason First Team All-American, add one of the best mid-major point guards in the country, add a scoring guard with three years of power conference experience, return four other key players from 2023-24 (including Chad Baker-Mazara who was ejected three minutes into the NCAA Tournament loss to Yale), have one of the best coaches in the country on the sideline, and are backed by the ever-proving computer metrics.
Johni Broome has the potential to be the National Player of the Year in 2024-25 if his offensive game continues to improve at the rate it has the last two offseasons. JP Pegues could be an All-SEC First Teamer and should make a seamless transition to the power conference level as a guard that can do it all and provide for his teammates. Pegues is ultra-efficient in pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop scenarios, something I think could be vital to success for this Tiger team if Broome continues to develop his three-point shot in the offseason.
With a guard as good as Pegues to pair with Johni Broome inside, Bruce Pearl should have a much easier job on the sidelines this season (and less headaches caused by inefficient nights from Aden Holloway and KD Johnson). Miles Kelly, Chad Baker-Mazara, and Denver Jones will all provide a boost in different areas for this team as well, and the sky is the limit for this Tigers team if the backcourt clicks together. I currently have the Tigers ranked 7th in my Way-Too-Early rankings for 2024-25 and pegged as one of my preseason Final Four teams for the 2025 Final Four in San Antonio.