Over the last two seasons, the Mountain West started to insert itself into the “Power Conference” conversation. This season they’ve legitimatized these conversations with a great non-conference schedule and have a real chance to send 4+ teams to the tournament for the third straight season.

Following a great non-conference showing from the conference’s top five teams, as long as these squads (San Diego State, Colorado State, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah State) can avoid bad losses to the conference’s bottom-dwellers, they are all in position to make the NCAA Tournament. Colorado State posted wins over Creighton, Colorado, and Washington and soared into the national rankings. San Diego State picked up wins away from home against Saint Mary’s, Washington, and Gonzaga. Nevada swept through the Diamond Head Classic including beating TCU in the semifinal round. There were plenty of great moments from the teams in this conference from November and December, and now I’m going to try and predict just how it plays out in January, February, and March.

#1 Colorado State (14-4)

Colorado State had one of the most dominant performances across the country so far this season when they throttled Creighton 69-48 in Kansas City. Coming shortly after that win were wins over Colorado at home and Washington in Las Vegas. The Rams’ lone less came to Saint Mary’s at home in a tight, low-scoring affair. Isaiah Stevens (17.3 ppg, 7.3 apg) is the centerpiece of this team and is one of the best guards in the country, leading the Rams in points, assists, and steals. The top four could go in any order, but I lean Colorado State to come out on top with what they’ve already proven this fall and the fact that they have Stevens leading their team.

#2 San Diego State (13-5)

San Diego State has an extremely talented player of their own in Jaedon LeDee (21.5 ppg, 9.2 rpg). The senior is greatly improved from any of his past four seasons and has a legitimate chance to be named an All-American. SDSU had quietly climbed to 10-2 after their early December loss to Grand Canyon. However, their win over Gonzaga at the Kennel last Friday propelled them back into national conversation and they now stand as an equal competitor to Colorado State in the Mountain West.

#3 Nevada (13-5)

The Wolf Pack returned one of the best backcourt tandems in the conference this season between Kenan Blackshear (16.1 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 4.9 apg) and Jarod Lucas (17.9 ppg, 2.7 rpg). They both have improved their efficiency so far this season and led the team through the Diamond Head Classic on their way to winning the championship game. Standing at 6′-6″, Blackshear can be a matchup disadvantage as he really the point guard of this team, and if he can get a smaller guard into the post its usually two points for Nevada. I think this Nevada team could be the most dangerous in the NCAA Tournament if they can get Lucas and Blackshear both hot at the right time, but that they’ll slip up just enough to miss out on the Mountain West regular season title.

#4 New Mexico (12-6)

Sophomore Donovan Dent (16.8 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 6.2 apg) exploded onto the national stage this season, playing extremely well in the absence of Jamal Mashburn Jr. (18.0 ppg). Combine these two with Jaelen House (15.3 ppg, 4.0 apg), and the Lobos are one of the scariest backcourts to matchup against in the country. Freshman JT Toppin (12.4 ppg, 7.6 rpg) is one of the best youngsters in the conference and adds excitement to the Lobo frontcourt. As I stated earlier, these four teams are all ridiculously close and this top four could go in any order. I’ve got the Lobos in 4th as they’ve looked shaky in some of their games away from home (14pt road loss to Saint Mary’s and a 73-72 close win over New Mexico State) in the non-conference schedule.

#5 Utah State (11-7)

Utah State didn’t have the same headline wins as the teams ahead of them had in non-conference play, but the Aggies head into conference play at 12-1. Their lone loss came in overtime at Bradley, and they picked up wins over UC Irvine and San Francisco. I don’t think Great Osobor (17.3 ppg, 9.2 rpg) is getting as much national attention as he should be getting. Osobor transferred in from Montana State in the offseason, following Danny Sprinkle from Bozeman. He scored a season-high 31 points against Southern Utah and posted 24 points in a road win at Saint Louis. Overall, the Aggies don’t have the same firepower as the top four, but they should be on the right side of the bubble come Selection Sunday.

#6 Boise State (9-9)

It was a rocky start to the 2023-24 season for Boise State, starting the year 3-3. A win over Saint Mary’s on December 1st changed the tide of the season for the Broncos, and they’ve won five of their six games since. Tyson Degenhart (14.8 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and Chibuzo Agbo (15.3 ppg, 5.1 rpg) are the team’s two top players, but will need a scoring boost from a guy like Robbie Anderson III in conference play to contend against the top dogs. The Broncos have an outside chance at making the tournament but will need an impressive showing in conference play in order to do so.

#7 UNLV (9-9)

The Runnin’ Rebels have yet to play a game with their full lineup, but we saw a flash of what this team could be at its best when they knocked off Creighton 79-64. There are a handful of key names you could pick out on this team, but the one I want to highlight is freshman Dedan Thomas Jr. (11.9 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 6.5 apg). Thomas scored 16 in the win over Creighton and had 24 in a double-overtime loss to Saint Mary’s. If Thomas can get hot like that during the Mountain West Conference tournament, this UNLV team could be a potential bid stealer.

#8 Wyoming (7-11)

Wyoming is yet another exciting team in this up-and-coming Mountain West Conference, and the return of Mason Walters (13.3 ppg, 3.0 rpg) two weeks ago adds to this Cowboy squad. Sam Griffin (18.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 3.8 apg) and Akuel Kot (15.8 ppg) lead the Cowboy backcourt and had strong showings in the Myrtle Beach Classic. Wyoming will pick off one or two of the big dogs throughout conference play, but they haven’t been consistent enough for me to put them any higher.

#9-11 The Rest of The Mountain West

To finish off the Mountain West, I’ve got San Jose State (5-13), Fresno State (3-15), and Air Force (3-15). The quality of the teams in the conference outside of the bottom three is elite, and I found it hard to find spots for these teams to win games. There will be some games where a team is looking ahead to a big match versus a title contender, and one of these three can steal a game, but overall, the talent disparity is large.

My Predictions for the All-Conference Selections and Awards

First Team: Isaiah Stevens (Colorado State), Jaedon LeDee (San Diego State), Kenan Blackshear (Nevada), Jamal Mashburn Jr. (New Mexico), Donovan Dent (New Mexico)

Second Team: Great Osobor (Utah State), Tyson Degenhart (Boise State), Dedan Thomas Jr. (UNLV), Sam Griffin (Wyoming), Nique Clifford (Colorado State)

Player of the Year: Isaiah Stevens (Colorado State)

Defensive Player of the Year: Kalib Boone (UNLV)

Newcomer of the Year: Great Osobor (Utah State)

Freshman of the Year: Dedan Thomas Jr. (UNLV)

Coach of the Year: Niko Medved (Colorado State)

Breakout Player to Watch For: Kobe Newton (Wyoming)