Welcome to my team preview series for 2024-25. Each day between now and the start of the college basketball season, I will preview one team or conference, both on Instagram (@collegehoopsoutlet) and through an article here. The preview will go in-depth on the roster build of the team, my expectations for their upcoming season, and the state of the program under their current head coach.
Tennessee (Projected: 3rd in SEC)
Rick Barnes finally reached an Elite Eight at Tennessee this past March, but the quest for the program’s first Final Four still remains. The Volunteers have had a top five defense per KenPom in each of the last four seasons, and while that has been the recipe for success for Barnes, the 2024-25 roster looks like a much more offensive-oriented one. If Rick Barnes can coach up the defensive side of things and let his players go to work offensively, there’s Final Four upside for this team.
The Final Four upside for this team starts with the return of senior point guard Zakai Zeigler (12 ppg, 6 rpg). At 5-9, 171 lbs., Zeigler is without a doubt the best defender in the country going pound for pound, but I think he may be the best on-ball defender in the country, period. Zeigler hasn’t been the most efficient offensive player throughout his time with the Vols, but with a handful of shooters coming into the program this offseason, I think he can do enough to create for them. Zeigler is a guy who contributes on both ends of the floor at a high level and is one of the more rewarding guys in the country to watch defensively. He’s the motor for this team, and I think that’s a very good thing, having been a part of three top four seeded teams and two second weekend appearances.
The rest of the returning players for the Vols saw minutes off the bench last season but should almost all have a slightly bigger role in 2024-25. Jordan Gainey (7 ppg) is the one that excites me the most, a prolific scorer for two seasons at USC Upstate before transferring into Tennessee last offseason and struggling from the floor. It’s often mentioned how the second year at a new school can be the one where a transfer breaks out, and I think there’s a possibility we see Jordan Gainey’s three-point percentage back up around 38-39%. A more consistent option to set next to Zeigler in the backcourt will be Jahmai Mashack (5 ppg), back for his fourth year with the Volunteers. Mashack fills his role well and does a bit of everything for the Vols, although he isn’t a high volume three-point shooter.
Continuing the list of returners is sophomore guard Cameron Carr (2 ppg). Carr saw limited minutes as a freshman but will be another possible contributor in the backcourt in his second season. J.P. Estrella (2 ppg) should have higher expectations for his sophomore season, breaking onto the national stage in the Elite Eight matchup with Purdue when he gave Zach Edey the best fight out of any Volunteer. Cade Phillips (1 ppg) is the final returner, another sophomore who should see a slight increase in minutes, although he likely won’t have the impact of Carr or Estrella.
The Volunteers lost six players this offseason, including SEC Player of the Year Dalton Knecht (22 ppg, 5 rpg). Behind Knecht were four mainstays of the Tennessee program, Jonas Aidoo (11 ppg, 7 rpg), Josiah-Jordan James (8 ppg, 6 rpg), Santiago Vescovi (6 ppg, 4 rpg), and Tobe Awaka (5 ppg, 5 rpg), who all left for one reason or another. Freddie Dilione V (2 ppg), another member of the 2023 incoming class, left his fellow freshmen, hitting the transfer portal and landing at Penn State.
To replace his veteran-laden squad from last season, Rick Barnes spent a lot of time in the transfer portal. Barnes found three frontcourt players to mix in with JP Estrella, including a power conference rim protector and two floor spacing options from the mid-major ranks. Felix Okpara (7 ppg, 6 rpg at Ohio State) started 34 games for the Buckeyes as a sophomore, clearing the boards and sending shots back at an absurd rate (2.4 bpg in 23.6 mpg). To space the floor next to Okpara or Estrella, Barnes picked up Charlotte transfer Igor Milicic Jr. (13 ppg, 9 rpg at Charlotte) and Hofstra transfer Darlinstone Dubar (18 ppg, 7 rpg at Hofstra). Milicic was a large part of the reason Charlotte was a surprise team in the AAC last season, making a big leap in production in his second season with the 49ers after transferring in from Virginia. Milicic contributes on the glass and on the defensive side of the court, and as mentioned earlier is a fine option to step out and hit the three (37.6% 3P). Dubar is another guy with prior high-major experience, spending a season at Iowa State before being a double-digit scorer at Hofstra in each of the last three seasons. Dubar, an even better shooter than Milicic, hit 39.9% of his three-point attempts last season, cashing in on 73 of his 183 attempts.
The backcourt also got its fair share of newcomers, adding North Florida transfer Chaz Lanier (20 ppg, 5 rpg at North Florida) and high school recruit Bishop Boswell (4*, NAT 74). Lanier, an electric three-point shooter for the Ospreys last season (106-241, 44.0% 3P), drew obvious comparisons to Dalton Knecht this offseason for his elite scoring ability and late breakout in the college scene. Lanier will have heavy pressure to be a big scoring option for the Vols, but I don’t think it’s necessary for him to have a Knecht type season in order for this team to be successful. Boswell will be another option in the backcourt for Barnes, a 6-4 combo guard that could have a positive impact on the offensive end in his freshman campaign.
Rick Barnes has solidified himself as one of the best coaches in the SEC throughout his tenure at Tennessee, but now at the age of 70, you begin to wonder if the only thing holding him back from retiring is taking Tennessee to the Final Four. The Vols have had a good chance at reaching the Final Four in each of the past three seasons, but came up just short, whether it was to the Cinderella story FAU Owls or the Zach Edey-led Purdue Boilermakers. This year’s team is much more prepared to make a run on the offensive side of things, and it will be up to Barnes to see if the defense can match the prowess of previous seasons.
Zakai Zeigler is one of my favorite players to watch in the country, probably because of the fact that he is 5-9 and is still an elite playmaker and defender. With tons of shooting surrounding him this season, I’m not sure how much his scoring numbers increase, but I’m confident in his assist numbers doubling. Chaz Lanier feels the obvious pick for an X-factor, a guy who has pressure coming in to be one of the Vols’ leading scorers, but I also want to toss in Jordan Gainey as an X-factor. Both Lanier and Gainey can be important scorers on the wing for the Vols, and if they’re both consistent shooters, at least one of them should go for 15 points a night with Zeigler breaking into the lane and forcing defenses to collapse.
I’m very high on the offensive capabilities of this new-look Tennessee squad, and I think it would be dumb to underestimate what a Rick Barnes team could do on the defensive side of things as well. I’ve got the Volunteers finishing 3rd in the stacked SEC this season, right behind Alabama and Auburn and thought of as a preseason top 10-15 team.