Welcome to my team preview series for 2024-25. Each day between now and the start of the college basketball season, I will preview one team or conference, both on Instagram (@collegehoopsoutlet) and through an article here. The preview will go in-depth on the roster build of the team, my expectations for their upcoming season, and the state of the program under their current head coach.
LSU (Projected: 12th in SEC)
After a poor first season, Matt McMahon rebounded in year two as LSU head coach, leading the team to a 9-9 record in SEC play. The Tigers’ KenPom rank would show they lucked into a .500 record in conference play but it’s still a great thing to build on. The backcourt will get a refresh in 2024-25, but three of the top forwards return for the Tigers.
Forwards Tyrell Ward (9 ppg) and Jalen Reed (8 ppg, 4 rpg) are the two biggest returners from McMahon’s 2023-24 squad. Ward is more of a stretch four, shooting 41.3% from three last season. Reed gives a bigger paint presence and will likely have to mold into a center with Will Baker graduated. Bringing both Ward and Reed back was important for McMahon and both enter the junior seasons with chances to take a giant leap in production.
Derek Fountain (5 ppg, 4 rpg) and Daimion Collins (4 ppg) should both have 15-20 mpg roles in the frontcourt, giving the Tigers some solid depth up front. Mike Williams III (7 ppg) had a productive freshman season and could find himself in the starting lineup or right off the bench as a spark plug for added offense. The final returner is forward Corey Chest, who redshirted as a freshman in 2023-24.
Seven players left the program this offseason, including star backcourt duo Jalen Cook (16 ppg, 4 rpg in 13 GP) and Jordan Wright (15 ppg, 5 rpg). The depth in the backcourt also suffered with Tre Hannibal (7 ppg, 4 rpg) and Carlos Stewart (5 ppg) on the way out. In the frontcourt, Will Baker (11 ppg, 5 rpg), Hunter Dean (4 ppg), and Mwani Wilkinson (2 ppg) all graduated.
McMahon targeted the backcourt as a priority in the transfer portal, finding three experienced guards. Jordan Sears (22 ppg, 5 rpg, 5 apg at UT Martin) is my favorite of the trio, a 5-11 point guard who can truly do it all. Sears led the Skyhawks to a regular season co-title in the Ohio Valley and averaged 1.3 spg while shooting 43.2% from three in addition to his scoring and assist numbers. Height is probably the one thing to be worried about in Sears’ transition to the SEC, but his 185 lbs frame evens him up pretty well physically with other SEC point guards.
The other possible starting guards, Cam Carter (15 ppg, 5 rpg at Kansas State) and Dji Bailey (10 ppg, 4 rpg at Richmond) also came to LSU this offseason via the transfer portal. Neither are the greatest shooter, but provide slashing and defense for the Tigers. Carter was a 15 ppg scorer at Kansas State last season in the Big 12, and could put up an even higher total this year for LSU. Bailey is primarily a defensive presence on the perimeter, and is able to both get out on the fast break and create fast breaks (1.7 spg).
To round out the incoming class, McMahon landed three four-star recruits, a JUCO transfer, and found help from the LSU football team. Guards Vyctorius Miller (4*, NAT 55) and Curtis Givens (4*, NAT 63) are both likely to see minutes off the bench in the backcourt. Forward Robert Miller III (4*, NAT 63) will have room to grow as a freshman, likely ceding minutes to the four upperclassmen forwards ahead of him in the rotation. Noah Boyde (JUCO) transfers in from the JUCO level, another guy that could contribute for small bursts in the Tigers’ frontcourt. Trey’Dez Green (LSU FB) is the final addition of the offseason, a football recruit who is officially on the basketball roster and could give them a boost come conference play.
McMahon showed his ability to win consistently as a coach at Murray State for seven seasons and now hopes to make the same third year jump he made with the Racers. He doesn’t have Ja Morant this time around, but he has a gritty squad of veterans that can be competitive and surprise some people in the SEC. The 9-9 record in SEC play last year was nothing short of a miracle, put it proved McMahon is able to raise the ceiling of his teams.
Heading into the season, I think it’s fair to say any of the top eight guys in LSU’s rotation could be considered an X-factor for the team. “Can Jordan Sears translate to the SEC?”, “Will Cam Carter take over the scoring in the backcourt?”, “Does Mike Williams III take the sophomore season leap?”, and “How much will the frontcourt duo of Tyrell Ward and Jalen Reed improve?” are all valid questions. For me, I think the X-factors are Mike Williams III and Daimion Collins. Williams III showed great flashes in his freshman campaign and if he can elevate his game he could take over the backcourt by the season’s end. To start the year though, I think Williams III comes off the bench as a spark plug, with Sears and Carter in the starting lineup as scorers. Collins was injured in November last season, but was just starting to hit his stride. If Collins can come back and be a solid piece in the frontcourt, the Tigers will miss Will Baker and Hunter Dean less.
Right now, it seems tough to be competitive for the LSU basketball program in the SEC. Matt McMahon seems like a guy who can do more with less, but I’m not sure he’s a guy that can push the Tigers over the hump and be a competitor at the top of the conference year in and year out. I’ve got the Tigers pegged 12th in the 16-team SEC, finishing right around the likes of Georgia, Oklahoma, and Missouri.